Bilal Khbeiz: The Three Cards Syria Want Aoun to Play

The Syrian regime realizes that March 14 forces draw its electoral power from the timing of the International tribunal that coincides with the Lebanese Parliamentary elections in spring 2009, and is probably preparing itself to play a role that matches with the International, Arab and Lebanese trends.A triangular role is being prepared for General Aoun, a role that transforms with the changing situation that may take place in Syria and Lebanon later, to an extent that Aoun has become a major Syrian player inside Lebanon, and the most capable leader to extend assistance to the Syrian regime in its electoral battle. The Syrian regime does not hide its in interest in the approaching electoral battle, and its ongoing quest to disable them or influence the results.The Syrian regime was able to develop at least two main points in two major districts, where it will blow up the situation if it found that the elections did not fall in its interest. If a new tension area in the South in Ain Al Helwe and its neighborhood is added to Taalbaya-Saadnayel in Bekaa, Beb Al Tebene – Mohsen Mountain in the north, then the Syrian plan is considered complete, and hence the regime will be able to cause clashes in most of the Lebanese regions of Sunnite majority.However, this scenario is not the only one; the chances for deactivation become stronger if the Syrian regime saw that parliamentary elections would not provide it with the parliamentary majority. That is why the Syrian regime is giving this attention to General Michel Aoun, the latter can play a very important role for the Syrian regime without any other help.Thats why General Aoun's visit to Syria was studied carefully, beginning with the presidential reception up to the TV interview where the general accused part of the Lebanese to be retarded.The General can play a role at the Christian level where March 14 forces cannot do the same .The Syrian greeting was intended to suggest that General Aoun is the first ally to the Syrian regime in Lebanon, with implication developed by General Aoun since 2005, on Christian incitement against the Sunnites.The Syrian suggestion that Aoun is the first Lebanese ally leaves Hezbollah and Amal behind. The Syrian propaganda continues to talk about the subordination of March 14 Forces to the United States and Saudi Arabia, and that the latter’s allies in March 14 do not have a single Christian or Maronite member, and that the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has never received a March 14 leader the same way that Syria received Aoun.Meanwhile, it seems that another role drawn for Michel Aoun is directly related to downgrading the role of President General Michel Sleiman. Syria wants to insinuate through the enthusiastic reception of Aoun, that he is the actual leader of Christians, and the president Michel Sleiman is simply a representative in the authority for the real leader.Honoring the General and all the heart talk prepared the Syrian arsenal for intervention in the next parliamentary elections. Everyone knows that the Syrian regime never hesitated to make everyone, even the dead, to serve its eternal battle and intention: dominating Lebanon.